Johannesburg, 15 October 2026 — Mining production August 2026 figures show the sharpest fall in almost four years. Statistics South Africa reported on Tuesday that output dropped 12.7% compared with August 2025. That follows a revised 7.0% fall in July. “This is the largest year-on-year decline since October 2022,” said Juan-Pierre Terblanche, principal survey statistician at Stats SA.
Platinum group metals did the most damage. PGM output fell 22.5% and cut 6.1 percentage points from the total. In addition, coal fell 11.7% and iron ore 16.2%. Gold, diamonds, copper and nickel also declined. However, two minerals grew: chrome ore rose 11.1% and manganese ore 4.1%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, output fell 5.4% from July, while mineral sales dropped 15.1% year on year as gold sales almost halved.
Factories did not offset the slump. Manufacturing output, released on 8 October, fell 4.3% year on year in August and 3.1% from July. As a result, two of the biggest sources of bulk road freight contracted in the same month.
What Drove The Mining Production August 2026 Decline
The weakness is broad rather than a one-month blip. Over the three months to August, mining output fell 5.2% against the previous three months, again led by PGMs, iron ore and diamonds. Meanwhile, costs kept rising. The Minerals Council’s mining input cost index rose 3.7% year on year in August, and fuel prices have climbed sharply since March. Investec economist Lara Hodes pointed to elevated input costs linked to the Middle East war, while IOL also cited logistics bottlenecks and weaker global demand for bulk commodities.
Manufacturing Fell Too
In manufacturing, petroleum and chemical products made the largest negative contribution, falling 5.0%. Motor vehicles and parts dropped 8.8%, while wood and paper fell 7.0%. Food and beverages and basic iron and steel each fell 3.0%. Even so, factory sales rose 2.8% at current prices, so higher prices partly masked lower volumes. Together, mining and manufacturing account for roughly 17% to 19% of GDP, and both now point to another weak quarter after the second-quarter GDP contraction.
Analysis
What Mining Production August 2026 Means For Fleets
The split by mineral matters more to hauliers than the headline. The Desk reported a month ago that mining production in July was already falling. Since then, the decline has deepened in the minerals that rely most on rail and conveyors, such as iron ore and much of the coal. By contrast, chrome and manganese grew, and both lean heavily on trucks. As the Desk set out in its report on the manganese export corridor, about 9 million tonnes of chrome and around 10 million tonnes of manganese a year already move by road.
The Desk Calculation: Fewer Loads, Dearer Loads
Here is the arithmetic, with the assumptions shown. First, volume. If a haulier’s loads track output, a coal contract that ran 10 loads a month now runs about 8.8. Because fixed costs do not fall with volume, each remaining load carries about 13% more fixed cost. For PGM work, the increase is about 29%, and for iron ore about 19%.
Second, fuel. The Desk’s standard coal run is a 1,000-kilometre round trip from Emalahleni to Richards Bay in a side-tipper that covers 2.0 kilometres a litre. That trip now burns about R16,645 of 50ppm diesel, which is R3,190 more than at August’s price of R26.91. Third, the exception. On the same logic, a chrome hauler’s fixed cost per load falls by about 10%, because volume rose 11.1%. Finally, the squeeze. In short, coal and PGM hauliers face fewer loads and dearer diesel together, while chrome hauliers have volume to absorb the fuel increase.
Mining Production August 2026: July Against August
| Measure | July (year on year) | August (year on year) |
|---|---|---|
| Total mining output | Down 7.5%, since revised to 7.0% | Down 12.7%, so the worst since 2022 |
| Platinum group metals | Down 13.5% | Down 22.5%, while costing 6.1 points |
| Coal | Down 7.5% | Down 11.7%, so 3.0 points off the total |
| Iron ore | Down 8.1% | Down 16.2%, as well as 23% lower sales |
| Chrome and manganese | Not in the Desk’s July report | Up 11.1% and 4.1%, so both grew |
| Manufacturing output | Up 1.1% | Down 4.3%, while sales rose 2.8% |
The Numbers Behind Mining Production August 2026
Fleet Impact
How Fleets Can Respond To Falling Volumes
Lower output does not affect every contract equally, so the response should be contract by contract. First, an operator needs to know which lanes still cover their fixed costs at the new volume. Vehicle tracking for fleet management shows loads, kilometres and idle time per truck and per customer, so a fleet can see where utilisation has dropped. Digit D-Fuel turns each tank of diesel into a cost per trip, so an operator can see which contracts still pay when volumes drop and fuel rises at the same time.
- First, measure utilisation per truck. When coal or PGM loads fall, an idle truck costs the same fixed amount every month.
- Second, reprice by lane, not by fleet. A coal run now carries about 13% more fixed cost per load, while a chrome run carries less.
- Third, redeploy where volume is growing. Chrome rose 11.1% and manganese 4.1%, so those corridors may absorb spare capacity.
- Finally, watch the next release. Stats SA publishes September data in mid-November, so it will show whether mining production August 2026 was the low point.
Fleet Technology
Fleet Technology For Shrinking Volumes
Output statistics arrive six weeks late. A fleet’s own trip data arrives every day. DigitFMS tracking shows which trucks are running loaded, which are waiting and which are parked, while Digit D-Fuel attaches a diesel cost to every trip. Consequently, an operator can see the effect of a volume drop on each contract long before the next national figures appear. Cartrack, Netstar, Tracker, Ctrack and MiX by Powerfleet also compete for this business. Behind the DigitFMS systems sits a network of more than 100 branches for installation and support.
Key Numbers: Mining Production August 2026 At A Glance
Key Numbers · Mining Production August 2026
Mining output: −12.7% year on year, so the largest fall since October 2022; −5.4% from July (seasonally adjusted); −5.2% over three months; July revised to −7.0%
By mineral: PGMs −22.5% (−6.1 points), coal −11.7% (−3.0), iron ore −16.2% (−2.4), gold −5.7%, diamonds −41.1%; chrome +11.1% and manganese +4.1%, while both added to the total
Sales: mineral sales −15.1% year on year, as gold sales fell 48.6% and iron ore sales 23.0%; mining input cost index +3.7%
Manufacturing: −4.3% year on year and −3.1% from July; petroleum and chemicals −5.0%, motor vehicles −8.8%; sales +2.8% at current prices
Desk calculation: 11.7% fewer coal loads ≈ +13% fixed cost per load; PGMs ≈ +29%, iron ore ≈ +19%, while chrome ≈ −10%
Fuel: a 1,000-km coal round trip at 2.0 km a litre ≈ R16,645 of 50ppm diesel, so R3,190 more than at August’s R26.91
Source: Statistics South Africa, Mining: Production and sales (P2041) and Manufacturing: Production and sales (P3041.2), August 2026; Business Day; IOL; EWN.
Questions Answered
Frequently Asked Questions: Mining Production August 2026
How Much Did Mining Production Fall In August 2026?
Output fell 12.7% year on year, which Stats SA says is the largest decline since October 2022. On a seasonally adjusted basis, it fell 5.4% from July.
Which Minerals Fell The Most?
Platinum group metals fell 22.5% and made the biggest contribution. In addition, iron ore fell 16.2%, coal 11.7% and diamonds 41.1%.
Did Any Minerals Grow?
Yes. Chrome ore rose 11.1% and manganese ore 4.1%. Both rely heavily on road transport, so their growth supports truck volumes on those corridors.
What Happened To Manufacturing?
Manufacturing output fell 4.3% year on year in August and 3.1% from July. Petroleum and chemicals, as well as motor vehicles, were the largest drags.
What Does This Mean For Hauliers?
Fewer loads on coal, PGM and iron ore work spread the same fixed costs over less revenue. At the same time, diesel costs more, so margins on those contracts are under pressure from both sides.
When Is The Next Release?
Stats SA publishes September manufacturing data on 10 November, and September mining data is expected in mid-November. Those figures will show whether mining production August 2026 marked the bottom.
Facts checked 15 October 2026. Source: Stats SA mining release, Stats SA manufacturing release, Business Day, IOL and EWN. Related: the official October fuel prices and truck sales in September.
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